Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Wyre Forest Political leanings

In response to a comment from Cynical Sid at the Shuttle I asked how he determined that the majority of Wyre Forest were Conservative. Using my own data I see that from the turnout for the currently elected councillors they managed their majority with less than 25% of the vote - hardly a majority.

As an example of how statistics can bend things this isn't the full picture. What of those who voted Conservative but whose candidate didn't win. To attain a true picture I need to sum all their votes and compute it as a percentage of the turnout. So to an accuracy of one decimal place the results for our current batch of councillors.

Conservative: 38.8%
Health Concern: 26.0%
Labour: 16.7%
Liberal: 8.7%
Liberal Democrat: 7.6%
Independent: 1.1%
Green: 1.0%
UKIP: 1.0%

So still not a majority. Is this a fair reading? Consider that the Conservatives fielded a candidate in every ward yet the other parties did not. Out of curiosity if we take it as a percentage of total of only those wards that fielded that particular party the results are.

Conservative: 38.8%
Health Concern: 27.3%
Labour: 17.2%
Liberal: 30.9%
Liberal Democrat: 26.7%

Independent: 24.5%
Green: 4.5%
UKIP: 4.4%

In both cases including that of our Conservative MP (36.9%) of those who bothered to vote the majority of Wyre Forest did not want the Conservatives to hold power. Yet they hold both our Parliamentary seat and the majority in council with officially 54.8% of the seats.

As such some of the councils decision that seem to be have been made my fiat need continuous airing.  So yes Sid except to say "Oh no ....not the Vale Rd car park again." many more times.

[Addendum - if the votes cast by the District were converted proportionally to seats on the council (actual seats held as of election party in brackets):

Conservative: 16 (24)
Health Concern: 11 (7)
Labour: 7 (4)
Liberal: 4 (5)
Liberal Democrat 3 (2)
Independent: 1 (0)