Monday, May 23, 2011

Republican Presidential hopefuls

A few news stories cropping up of potential Republican Presidential hopefuls stating that they wouldn't be standing rather than announcing they would. A follow up item in the Independent pointed out how odd this was. Why is it odd?

The USA has recently has its mid-term elections for the Senate and Representatives and depending on how it goes it's either a time to capitalise on popularity or rally the troops. It signals for those willing to throw their hat into the Presidential ring to announce this and start to campaign.

This time around all is silent. Considering the Republicans did well in the mid-terms they should be jumping up and down in glee, but instead we get those named as hopefuls standing back; why?

Let's consider the options. The usual reason people try to back out of a job is because it's a bad job. Surely this can't be the case here, but do the Republicans know something we don't? If the next few years for America is going to be tough with lot's of unpleasant decisions that will need to be made by the sitting President regardless of Party wouldn't it be better to leave that with the opposition? Let them be the ones associated with the bad times while you can sit on the edge and snipe.

Another cause perhaps is the campaigning side. As the No2AV campaign showed here in the UK (no I'm not letting that go) one of the most effective ways to gain support is to trash the opposition. The current President just presided over the execution of Number 1 on the Most Wanted list; he is riding on a heck of a lot of patriotic support right now. So ironically like the Bush Jnr terms criticising him will be seen as being un-American; at least for the moment.

A third cause may be the current rifts forming in the Republican Party; the Tea Party was surprising in its rapid growth. While I think most Republicans aren't keen on them that presents a new dilemma. Choose someone from that faction who they don't like, agree with, or think could be elected; or choose someone else and risk them fielding their own candidate and splitting the Republican vote.

Add in some of the sheer foot-in-mouth gaffs made by some of the potentials or backfired embarrassments and the silence coming from them is more understandable.

They'll wait until the shine is off Obama; the gaffs forgotten; the factions either gone or too important to ignore; then they'll come out with all guns blazing to make up for lost time. At least that's my prediction.


walkerno5 said...

Nailed it with the OBL point. Obama was being painted as weak on military and strong force projection. One dead terrorist later he's a colossus.

Also, the sheer insane frothing at the mouth kind of republican we all know and mock, the "birthers", were allowed to build up to such a pitch of noise that when BO produced his long form birth certificate, it was like hitting them for six.

While this didn't tar everyone in the republican movement, it totally castrated all the credible republicans who hadn't denounced the foolishness ahead of time.

Very shrewd timing from BO, after the poor midterms and struggles with health reform and budgets he looks stronger than he has for ages.

The republicans are basically split between complete nutters and straightforward conservatives and only have themselves to blame. Giving the nutters their head generates a lot of noise but makes a republican candidate unelectable.

FlipC said...

Yeah the birth certificate was what I was thinking of in terms of backfires. I think that's why Donald 'not a wig' Trump backed out..

They're just stumped for the time being, but as I say once they do come out it'll be fighting.

Oh wouldn't it be wonderful if the main contender against the Democrat wasn't a Republican; really screw up the media there.