Thursday, March 01, 2007

Petrol, buses, oo and the skate-park too

So it's been reported today about all the problems people are having with their cars after filling up. It's interesting to note that all the problems so far have centred on supermarket garages in one particular area of the country. As Eammon Holmes put it on Sky

"It's not affecting people in Manchester, Newcastle, Belfast or Glasgow; it's just the South-East"
Hear that? It's the sound of the tumbleweed blowing through the arid wasteland that lies outside my door. I'm not that surprised the mental map of the UK from down south always seems to be...
The Midlands are just this thin channel you have to cross in order to get to Scotland etc., as for Wales, who?

Anyway I filled up yesterday, and not at a supermarket. At least with the big names I've got some idea of where my fuel comes from, I expect supermarkets to be chasing whoever's got the cheapest price. Now according to a supermarket spokesman they've tested the petrol and
"it doesn't contain anything that shouldn't be in there"
Do you want me to pick that apart, yes you know you do. Let's treat it as a homicide investigation, a body found in an air-tight room with no visible cause of death. The tests say that there was nothing in the air that shouldn't be there. So it can't be that; can it?

Nitrogen: 78%
Oxygen: 15%
Argon: 0.9%
Carbon Dioxide: 5.1%
other trace: 1%

Oops Oxygen levels should be 21%, but still the test was completely accurate; nothing there that shouldn't be. So that's tells us nothing.

Current thoughts are that there was too much ethanol in the mix (in the same way there was too little oxygen in the homicide case) Only if you give out the results would you be able to tell, of course if you didn't want anyone to know you could just say that there was nothing in the mix that shouldn't be there ;-)


Don at the WFA pointed the 36% never use buses article to me. What a delight, the majority of people who voted never use the bus; that's a whopping 36% of the vote.

Um so what about the other 64%? Easy as, astonishingly, they give the breakdown of the result,
36% - never use the bus
28% - used the bus in the last week
20% - used a bus in the last year
16% - used the bus in the last month,
though not as neatly as I've done. So they're quite correct the 'majority' never use the bus - for a given measurement method.

It also pays to check the way the poll was carried out, firstly it was a voluntary on-line vote. So the demographic is instantly split to those who have access to a computer, those who are on-line, and to those who participated. Hardly a representative sample of the district.

Secondly the way it was set out, here's that choice again:
Bus services were cut again this week - but when was the last time you used a bus?
Last week
Last month
Last year
Never
So anybody who used a bus over a year ago either selects Never or doesn't vote. Needs an "Over one year ago" inserted in there, but it'll mess up the snappy verbalage.

As part of another poll they spotted multiple votes which were discounted. They don't say how they detect these multiple voters, the easiest way would be by IP address (discounting registration and cookies). So multiple office voters behind a single IP address may be dis-enfranchised as would a family each voting individually on the same computer.

Finally we have no age or region breakdown. So those of a certain age may make up the majority of the 28% last week group, whilst the 36% are made up of bright young things in their revved up sports cars.

Here's how the story could have been written by a pro-bus reporter
64% use the buses

THE majority of online readers who voted in last week's Shuttle poll have used a bus.

In view of more bus services being axed, we asked how often people use buses.

Sixty-four per cent of those responding said they used that form of public transport within the year.

Of those just under half (43%) said they used a bus in the last week, while a quarter (25%) said they had been on a bus in the last month.
For those who spotted that 43% and 25% add to 68% note I said "Of those" meaning as a percentage of the 64%; I can be weaselly too you know.

The true story is that they're cutting the bus times for the one that goes to the Kidderminster railway station from Stourport, if I recall correctly it's also the one that goes to the hospital too (although that may be another one being cut down). They're also fiddling with the service that goes to Worcester. So for those in Stourport without a car who want to get to our county city bye-bye bus, bye-bye train. Ah well they can always get a taxi.


While doing this I needed to check how the poll was questioned, it showed up as part of the results for the skate-park poll. So being the thorough (and curious) chap I am I took at look at how that was worded too. Here's how it was reported
A total of 43 per cent of those who voted felt the chosen location next to the paddling pool was the best position, while 34 per cent agreed with the town council that it should be near the sports centre.
Here's how the question was put.
Where should the controversial new Stourport skate-park be sited?
1 Riverside
2 Sports Centre
3 Another location
4 Don't need one
So 43% voted it should be on the Riverside. Hey I'm not arguing with that I just don't equate riverside with "next to the paddling pool". Again note that 34% said the sports centre and 10% said elsewhere - so that's 44% who don't want it on the "Riverside". Ah just ignore them they obviously don't know what they're talking about; bloody critics.

2 comments:

Don B said...

Well I did set you up to comment analytically on The Shuttle piece on the withdrawal of buses in the Wyre Forest area. As you so frequently show, so many commentators are positively ignorant in their use of statistics and are not capable of proper statistical analysis.

I deliberately did not mention the hospital in my original piece because I thought the routes 11 and 12 still went from Stourport to Kidderminster passing Kidderminster Hospital en route, but I have just looked them up on http://www.travelinemidlands.co.uk/ and see that they are of no use for any outpatient appointments before 3.30pm

FlipC said...

I trust you found it to your taste? I'm not sure what the ratio is between not understanding the statistics and not wanting to understand the statistics if you catch my drift.

In this case the headline should have been enough to ring warning bells, as it did for you, when you have a use/not use choice you can't have a 36% majority without a lot of hanging chads. At least they provided the full details though, that's more then most media outlets do.


Ah I thought it was the 16a that did the early hospital route, it was in fact my mother who alerted me to this when I spoke to her yesterday. She can't drive and has had to make several trips down there. She's a tad miffed.


I'm glad you can comment here now, any idea on what was causing the problems before?