Friday, July 30, 2010

Alcohol crime statistics

One from Liberal Conspiracy on once again how to use statistics to tell a truth. Theresa May's quote

an increase in the number of alcohol related incidents and drink-fuelled crime and disorder
Seems easy enough to understand there have been more incidents involving drink. Except as LC and FullFact demonstrate the Home Office has no statistics on such incidents and the report it got the details from show a decrease in such incidents.

So how can it be a truth. Well imagine last year there were 100 incidents and 30 of them were 'alcohol-related' that equates to 30%. Now imagine that this year the total number of incidents dropped to 75 and 25 of them were 'alcohol-related' that equates to 33%. So the "number of alcohol related incidents" has increased hasn't it?

Well no simply the proportion of them. Good job the Home Office corrected this (after being found out) and I'm sure all those tabloids printing up the headlines about Boozy Britain will incorporate the addition in the quote.

Honest mistake or an attempt to justify pushing through new legislation?

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